SUBPROJECT - A1
Modelling oceanic oxygen changes from the Holocene into the Anthropocene
We wish to investigate the processes driving past changes in Tropical Ocean oxygenation and to project future Tropical Ocean oxygen distributions until the end of this millennium. For the first time, transient (continuous, non-accelerated) simulations for the complete Holocene, starting about 10,000 calendar years BP, will be conducted with a focus on centennial to millennial timescale changes. This enables estimating the level of low- frequency natural variability in Tropical Ocean oxygenation, which is important in order to assess current and potential future trends. The joint analysis of model results, instrumental and paleo proxy data is a key element of our research project. The proposed work builds on the success of qualitatively reproducing reconstructed trends in ocean ventilation in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) by means of time slice experiments simulating the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial times. This region will remain our focus during the third phase of the SFB 754.
A coherent synthesis of centennial to millennial variations in the ETSP-OMZ during the Holocene will be developed based on combining information from model experiments and the analysis of different proxy data. This knowledge will complement scenarios of future long-term climate variability and their impacts on the ETSP-OMZ. Our modelling efforts put the shorter timescale focus of other subprojects into a longer-term perspective. The proposed studies are a contribution to international model comparison initiatives (PMIP3 and CMIP6).
References
Bordbar, M.H., T. Martin, M. Latif and W. Park (2015) Long-Term Internal Variability Effects on 21st Century Dynamic Sea Level Projections. Nat. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2569
Cocco, V., F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T.L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider and J. Tjiputra (2013) Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi- model global warming projections. Biogeoscienes, 10, 1849-1868, doi: 10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013
Harlass, J., M. Latif and W. Park (2015) Improving climate model simulation of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature: The importance of enhanced vertical atmosphere model resolution. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2401-2408, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063310
Khon, V., W. Park, M. Latif, I. Mokhov and B. Schneider (2012) Tropical circulation and hydrological cycle response to orbital forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39 (L15708), doi: 10.1029/2012GL052482
Latif, M., T. Martin and W. Park (2013) Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends. J. Climate, 19, 7767-7782, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1
Martin, T., W. Park and M. Latif (2013) Multi-centennial variability controlled by Southern Ocean convection in the Kiel Climate Model. Clim. Dynam., 40, 2005-2022, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1586-7
Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N.S. Keenlyside, V.A. Semenov and T. Martin (2012) Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: Data analysis and model experiments, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1757-1773, doi: 10.1007/ s00382-011-1047-8
Salau, O., B. Schneider, W. Park, V. Kohn and M. Latif (2012) Modeling the ENSO Impact of orbitally induced mean state climate changes. J. Geophys. Res., 117, (C05043), doi: 10.1029/2011JC007742
Zinke, J., M. Pfeiffer, W. Park, B. Schneider, L. Reuning, W.-Chr. Dullo, G.F. Camoin, A. Mangini, A. Schroeder- Ritzrau, D. Garbe-Schönberg and G.R. Davies (2014) Seychelles coral record of changes in sea surface temperature bimodality in the western Indian Ocean from the Mid-Holocene to the present. Clim. Dynam., doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2082-z
Contact:
Prof. B. Schneider Prof. Mojib Latif
Tel.: +49 431 880 3254
Tel.: +49 431 600
4050bschneider(a)gpi.uni-kiel.de
mlatif(a)geomar.de